Search results for "Brier score"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
Predicting in-hospital mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019: A simple validated app for clinical use
2021
Backgrounds Validated tools for predicting individual in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 are lacking. We aimed to develop and to validate a simple clinical prediction rule for early identification of in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. Methods and findings We enrolled 2191 consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from three Italian dedicated units (derivation cohort: 1810 consecutive patients from Bergamo and Pavia units; validation cohort: 381 consecutive patients from Rome unit). The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Fine and Gray competing risks multivariate model (with discharge as a competing event) was used to develop a prediction rule for in-hospital mortality. D…
An Original Risk Score to Predict Early Major Bleeding in Acute Pulmonary Embolism
2021
Background Improved prediction of the risk of early major bleeding in pulmonary embolism (PE) is needed to optimize acute management. Research Question Does a simple scoring system predict early major bleeding in acute PE patients, identifying patients with either high or low probability of early major bleeding? Study Design and Methods From a multicenter prospective registry including 2,754 patients, we performed post hoc multivariable logistic regression analysis to build a risk score to predict early (up to hospital discharge) major bleeding events. We validated the endpoint model internally, using bootstrapping in the derivation dataset by sampling with replacement for 500 iterations. P…
Sample size planning for survival prediction with focus on high-dimensional data
2011
Sample size planning should reflect the primary objective of a trial. If the primary objective is prediction, the sample size determination should focus on prediction accuracy instead of power. We present formulas for the determination of training set sample size for survival prediction. Sample size is chosen to control the difference between optimal and expected prediction error. Prediction is carried out by Cox proportional hazards models. The general approach considers censoring as well as low-dimensional and high-dimensional explanatory variables. For dimension reduction in the high-dimensional setting, a variable selection step is inserted. If not all informative variables are included…
A performance evaluation of the expert system 'Jaundice' in comparison with that of three hepatologists.
1991
The diagnostic performance of an Expert System (Jaundice) designed to discriminate between different causes of jaundice was evaluated in a test sample of 200 consecutive in-patients with serum bilirubin greater than or equal to 51 mumol/l. The average probability assigned to true diagnosis, the non-error rate and the overall accuracy were, respectively, 55%, 77% and 70%. The Expert System's discriminatory ability in probabilistic prediction, assessed by a method based on continuous functions of the diagnostic probabilities (Brier score) was good. We also compared the ability of our Expert System to that of three experienced hepatologists, who were required to give a diagnosis in 20 cases fo…
Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU
2019
OBJECTIVES To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81‐87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30‐day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteris…
Validation of clinical scoring systems ART and ABCR after transarterial chemoembolization of hepatocellular carcinoma.
2016
Abstract Purpose To perform an external validation of the Assessment for Retreatment with Transarterial Chemoembolization (ART) and α-fetoprotein (AFP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Child–Pugh, and response (ABCR) scores and to compare them in terms of prognostic power. Materials and Methods From 2000 to 2015, 871 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolization at a tertiary referral hospital, and 176 met all inclusion and exclusion criteria for both scores and were analyzed. Nineteen percent (n = 34) had BCLC stage A disease and 81% had stage B disease. Thirty-nine patients (22%) presented with elevated AFP levels. Overall survival was calculated. …